What should we do about this season?
Without the ability to "watch" the show together in person, the question was posed regarding the logistics to bring this season to a virtual format:
Given these results, the most preferred option was to point a webcam at someone's television while we all watch along on Zoom. While it's fairly low-tech, it's an option that doesn't cost additional money for anyone and allows us all to watch together with a fairly smooth watching experience!
Chatting later, Purchasing, Watching Live, and Zoom Screen Share followed close, but behind. Further responses indicated members would bow out of participating due to a variety of reasons if we chose to go with watching live or purchasing the season. Therefore, if technical issues require a new format for virtual participation, we will pursue either the chat later or zoom screen share options.
Chatting later, Purchasing, Watching Live, and Zoom Screen Share followed close, but behind. Further responses indicated members would bow out of participating due to a variety of reasons if we chose to go with watching live or purchasing the season. Therefore, if technical issues require a new format for virtual participation, we will pursue either the chat later or zoom screen share options.
How do we want to participate in this virtual season?
Regardless of what format we choose to participate in, we took a look at the game that we play together. The question was posed to the group - in what way do you want to participate in this season?
Responses were broadly spread across the different options for game preference. Overall, there was general agreement that we should participate in some kind of activity together, with "No Scoring" receiving the lowest mean and median score.
With the highest median score, the virtual participation this season will follow the "Bracket" format. When attempted prior to the initiation of this league, the group ran into issues, namely that the number of contestants that were eliminated each week were unpredictable. Therefore, a deeper analysis of contestants eliminated by week was undertaken.
Reviewing availability, out of 13 total responses 12 indicated that a Tuesday evening would be acceptable, with an additional 1 response indicating that they wish to participate when available but do not have a regular day each week to offer.
With the highest median score, the virtual participation this season will follow the "Bracket" format. When attempted prior to the initiation of this league, the group ran into issues, namely that the number of contestants that were eliminated each week were unpredictable. Therefore, a deeper analysis of contestants eliminated by week was undertaken.
Reviewing availability, out of 13 total responses 12 indicated that a Tuesday evening would be acceptable, with an additional 1 response indicating that they wish to participate when available but do not have a regular day each week to offer.
Building a Bachelor Bracket using Statistics
Examining the past 8 seasons of the Bachelorette, there appears to be a target number of 3 contestants eliminated per week, with some variation by season, until hometown week (Week 8) when target eliminations per week are reduced to 1 contestant.
Additionally, the total number of contestants in Week 1 has increased over time. Previously this appears capped at 25 but has reached as high as 31 contestants in recent years. These recent, higher starting point, years results in a relatively high variance in quantity reduced from week 1 through week 3 compared to other weeks because more than three contestants each week need to be eliminated over the same 10-week span.
Further statistical analysis utilizing the Tukey pairwise comparison methodology indicates that in a season of the Bachelorette, it is likely that week 1 will eliminate between 8-9 contestants, weeks 2-6 will eliminate an average of 3 contestants per week, week 7 will eliminate 2-3 contestants, and weeks 9-10 will eliminate an average of 1 contestant per week.
Additionally, the total number of contestants in Week 1 has increased over time. Previously this appears capped at 25 but has reached as high as 31 contestants in recent years. These recent, higher starting point, years results in a relatively high variance in quantity reduced from week 1 through week 3 compared to other weeks because more than three contestants each week need to be eliminated over the same 10-week span.
Further statistical analysis utilizing the Tukey pairwise comparison methodology indicates that in a season of the Bachelorette, it is likely that week 1 will eliminate between 8-9 contestants, weeks 2-6 will eliminate an average of 3 contestants per week, week 7 will eliminate 2-3 contestants, and weeks 9-10 will eliminate an average of 1 contestant per week.
Additional challenges this season will come in the form of the COVID shut-down and uncertainty with the quantity of bachelor contestants available in the pool both pre- and post- shutdown, as well as uncertainty with how the producers will manage the transition from Clare to Tayshia.
Some assumptions can be made, in that Clare likely starts with about 30 suitors and that it would be highly unlikely that all suitors are recast in a short window of time between Clare and Tayshia.
Using this model and the above assumptions, a bracket can be built using the following criteria:
Week 1: 30 Contestants (to be modified once cast is announced)
Week 2: 22 Contestants
Week 3: 19 Contestants
Week 4: 16 Contestants
Week 5: 13 Contestants
Week 6: 10 Contestants
Week 7: 7 Contestants
Week 8: 4 Contestants
Week 9: 3 Contestants
Week 10: 2 Contestants
Champion: 1 Contestant
Additional updates to follow pending more concrete rules on managing the bracket framework for this season.
Some assumptions can be made, in that Clare likely starts with about 30 suitors and that it would be highly unlikely that all suitors are recast in a short window of time between Clare and Tayshia.
Using this model and the above assumptions, a bracket can be built using the following criteria:
Week 1: 30 Contestants (to be modified once cast is announced)
Week 2: 22 Contestants
Week 3: 19 Contestants
Week 4: 16 Contestants
Week 5: 13 Contestants
Week 6: 10 Contestants
Week 7: 7 Contestants
Week 8: 4 Contestants
Week 9: 3 Contestants
Week 10: 2 Contestants
Champion: 1 Contestant
Additional updates to follow pending more concrete rules on managing the bracket framework for this season.